Do the ads increase enthusiasm among likely Democratic voters who might otherwise stay home? Can these ads increase Vote Choice for Harris in the states that matter most? Will a positive vision of the future prove more powerful that casting fear over what may come?
Stakes are at an all-time high this election season, but as Ground Media’s latest "Stories That Win" research shows, even slight shifts in support or enthusiasm among key demographics can tip the balance.
However, even as ads showing a positive future under Harris or a negative critique of Trump had limited overall impact, the small changes we observed—like boosted enthusiasm among women and Latino voters or a slight dip in Trump’s favorability in Georgia—could prove pivotal. In a race as tight as this, these minor shifts in mobilization and enthusiasm, particularly within specific segments and swing states, could ultimately tip the scales. Every vote truly counts.
The question remains: can optimism triumph over fear? Here’s what our findings reveal:
- Optimism beats fear – Ads with a hopeful, future-focused tone resonate powerfully. Harris’s “Turn the Page” ad, promoting unity and progress, outperforming messages centered on fear.
- Strategic targeting beats broad persuasion – While broad audience persuasion is tough in a polarized climate, targeting select groups is achievable (and very effective, according to our data)
- Every vote has an impact – Small increases among segments like women and Gen Z, or minor decreases in Trump’s favorability, could sway outcomes in battleground states.
Check out the research below, powered by Swayable’s RCT technology, to learn which ad had the most impact on voter enthusiasm.
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Methodology
This monadic RCT survey experiment was conducted on Swayable over 24 hours between October 23rd and 24th, 2024, with responses from 3,894 U.S. consumers. Questions were asked of a general population sample using Swayable’s proprietary online platform.
The sample frame is U.S. smartphone users in all 50 states with active internet connections who are users of popular mobile and web apps that make up Swayable’s network of respondent partners. Respondents are solicited from partner apps with non-monetary reward offers for their participation. Respondents were recruited with an approximately even ratio of men and women imposed via separate quotas for each. This is a “non-probability sample” (in the conventional terminology of public opinion research, although this team believes this concept is not meaningful since truly random sampling of the population is not possible via any methodology). To correct for over/under-sampling, all samples are post-stratified to the general U.S. population using cross-tabulations accounting for factors including age, ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and geography, based on the latest available data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Swayable’s proprietary population modeling. Margins of error quoted are based on response distribution statistics and sample sizes and are calculated independently for each result.
This research was conducted and self-funded by Swayable.