Election ‘24 Stories That Win: Too Close to Call

Do the ads increase enthusiasm among likely Democratic voters who might otherwise stay home? Can these ads increase Vote Choice for Harris in the states that matter most? Will a positive vision of the future prove more powerful that casting fear over what may come?

Stakes are at an all-time high this election season, but as Ground Media’s latest "Stories That Win" research shows, even slight shifts in support or enthusiasm among key demographics can tip the balance.

However, even as ads showing a positive future under Harris or a negative critique of Trump had limited overall impact, the small changes we observed—like boosted enthusiasm among women and Latino voters or a slight dip in Trump’s favorability in Georgia—could prove pivotal. In a race as tight as this, these minor shifts in mobilization and enthusiasm, particularly within specific segments and swing states, could ultimately tip the scales. Every vote truly counts.

The question remains: can optimism triumph over fear? Here’s what our findings reveal:  

1. Optimism beats fear – Ads with a hopeful, future-focused tone resonate powerfully. Harris’s “Turn the Page” ad, promoting unity and progress, outperforming messages centered on fear.
2. Strategic targeting beats broad persuasion – While broad audience persuasion is tough in a polarized climate, targeting select groups is achievable (and very effective, according to our data)
3. Every vote has an impact – Small increases among segments like women and Gen Z, or minor decreases in Trump’s favorability, could sway outcomes in battleground states. 

Check out the research below, powered by Swayable’s RCT technology, to learn which ad had the most impact on voter enthusiasm.

Want to learn more about how Ground Media used Swayable's powerful RCT testing technology to prove impact? Book a demo with us to get started on your creative testing journey today.